Dec 11, 2009

Singularity

I haven't written much about this lately, but recently IBM scientists built the biggest artificial brain of all time, (now as smart as a house cat), using a supercomputer powered by 147,456 processors and 150,000 gigabytes of memory.

It appears we are on the way to realizing Ray Kurzweil’s prediction made in 1999 that by the year 2020, the power of a $1,000 PC will match the computing speed and capacity of the human brain. He had a follow-up 2005 work, 'The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology', in which he talked more about how the exponential growth of computing will enhance human intelligence far beyond anything imaginable today.

Many scholars believe that because of this rapidly accelerating convergence, a technological event called the SINGULARITY will occur. The amount and rate of change resulting from it, will cause such vast difference in how we work, live, and play that we can't possibly conceive of the changes that will come about after that time. Think of it as the  new industrial revolution on steroids, Viagra, and hallucinogens all at the same time. These scholars are talking about positive, not negative affects of technology.

Kurzweil says that computers are rapidly gaining intelligence, are acquiring humanlike intelligence, and will eventually, collectively exceed human intelligence. Computers will be able to gather knowledge on their own. On the human side, new technologies will be increasing our health and mental capabilities, thanks to nanotechnologies and knowledge systems. By the 2020s, “it will become increasingly difficult to draw any clear distinction between the capabilities of human and machine intelligence,” he wrote.

Kurzweil also went on to predict that by 2029, the power of a $1,000 PC will grow to approximately 1,000 human brains. By that time, “automated agents are now learning on their own, and significant knowledge is now being created by machines on their own.” Several decades later, by the end of the 21st century, there will be more software-based “humans” than carbon-based humans.

The world is already different than what it was just five years ago. Think iPod and the touch screens they use on news programs. I love technology and I know I can always pull out the plug or hit the off switch. Wish I could do that with some. . . Oh, that's a different story.