Jan 24, 2020

Old 2020 Predictions

In 1990, The Washington Post reported in a front page story: "Carbon dioxide is the gas most responsible for predictions that Earth will warm on average by about 3 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2020." It further warned: "The United States, because it occupies a large continent in higher latitudes, could warm by as much as 6 degrees Fahrenheit." Thirty years later, 2020 has finally arrived. The Earth has warmed about 1 degree Fahrenheit according to NASA. The United States also warmed roughly 1 degree.
- CNN ran a headline in 2003 titled 'World oil and gas 'running out'. The New York Times reported in 1989 that "untapped pools of domestic oil are finite and dwindling," and that "William Stevens, the president of Exxon U.S.A., said ... by the year 2020 there would not be enough domestic oil left 'to keep me interested.'" Both U.S. oil output and U.S. proven oil reserves are dramatically higher now than they were in 1989.
- "It's now estimated that by the year 2020, there will be no glaciers of Mt. Kilimanjaro," the U.N. Environment Program, told CNN in 2003. In 2001, glaciologist Lonnie Thompson predicted the snows of Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania would disappear within the next 20 years.”  Today, Kilimanjaro's glaciers are still there, according to a 2019 paper in the Journal Ecology and Evolution that includes photos and another new timetable: "most of glaciers on Kilimanjaro ... will most likely disappear within 25 years."

- Reuters headline in 1997: "Millions will die unless climate policies change." The report said 8 million people would die by 2020, citing a prediction in the Lancet medical journal. “None of these predictions came true, and aren't even close to coming true,” said Roy Spencer, a climatologist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. “It's amazing that the public can continue to believe apocalyptic predictions despite a 95 percent decline in weather-related deaths in the last 100 years.”

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