We have officially passed
the middle of 2020. The good news is that we appear to have
escaped Armageddon. Future historians will likely replace,
"Where were you when Kennedy was shot" with "Where were you when
the virus hit?." We will endlessly debate which was worse, the
negative media hype, the lock-down, or the disease. What we do
know is that this pandemic is not the worst. Also, since the
beginning of June, there are more cured cases than active cases.
According to WebMD, early estimates predict that the overall
COVID-19 recovery rate is between 97% and 99.75%.
As of June 24, the
number of people the CDC confirmed infected is at 9.2 million,
or .13% of the world population and the death toll is (475
thousand) .06%.
CDC estimates that,
from October 1, 2019, through April 4, 2020, there have been
between 39 and 56 million seasonal flu illnesses.
From MPH Online, an
independent online resource for public health students -
HIV/AIDS Pandemic had a
Death Toll of 36 million. (Congo)
Between 2005 and 2012 the annual global deaths from HIV/AIDS
dropped from 2.2 million to 1.6 million.
Flu Pandemic 1968 had a
Death Toll of 1 million. Hong Kong))
The 1968 pandemic had a mortality rate (.5%) and resulted in the
deaths of more than a million people.
Asian Flu Pandemic
(1956-1958) had a Death Toll of 2 million. (China)
The World Health Organization noted approximately 2 million
deaths.
Flu Pandemic (1918) had
a Death Toll of 20 -50 million. (Spanish, but disputed)
Of the 500 million people infected in the 1918 pandemic, the
mortality rate was estimated at 10% to 20%, with up to 25
million deaths in the first 25 weeks.
Showing posts with label COVID-19. Show all posts
Showing posts with label COVID-19. Show all posts
Jun 29, 2020
Jun 5, 2020
Five COVID-19 Facts
The overwhelming majority of people do not have any
significant risk of dying from COVID-19.
The recent Stanford University antibody study now estimates that the fatality rate, if infected is likely 0.1 to 0.2 percent, a risk far lower than previous World Health Organization estimates that were 20 to 30 times higher.
Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding.
We can learn about hospital utilization from data from New York City, the hotbed of COVID-19 with more than 34,600 hospitalizations to date. For people ages 65 to 74, only 1.7 percent were hospitalized. Of 4,103 confirmed COVID-19 patients with symptoms bad enough to seek medical care, Dr. Leora Horwitz of NYU Medical Center concluded "age is far and away the strongest risk factor for hospitalization." Even early WHO reports noted that 80 percent of all cases were mild, and more recent studies show a far more widespread rate of infection and lower rate of serious illness. Half of all people testing positive for infection have no symptoms.
Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem.
We know from decades of medical science that infection itself allows people to generate an immune response — antibodies — so that the infection is controlled throughout the population by “herd immunity.” That is the main purpose of widespread immunization in other viral diseases, to assist with population immunity. In this virus, we know that medical care is not even necessary for the vast majority of people who are infected. It is so mild that half of infected people are asymptomatic. In fact, infected people without severe illness are the immediately available vehicle for establishing widespread immunity. By transmitting the virus to others in the low-risk group who then generate antibodies, they block the network of pathways toward the most vulnerable people, ultimately ending the threat.
People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections.
Critical health care for millions of Americans is being ignored and people are dying to accommodate “potential” COVID-19 patients and for fear of spreading the disease. Most states and many hospitals abruptly stopped “nonessential” procedures and surgery. That prevented diagnoses of life-threatening diseases, like cancer screening, biopsies of tumors now undiscovered and potentially deadly brain aneurysms. Treatments, including emergency care, for the most serious illnesses were also missed. Cancer patients deferred chemotherapy. An estimated 80 percent of brain surgery cases were skipped. Acute stroke and heart attack patients missed their only chances for treatment, some dying and many now facing permanent disability.
We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures.
The overwhelming evidence around the world consistently shows that a clearly defined group, older people and others with underlying conditions, is more likely to have a serious illness requiring hospitalization and more likely to die from COVID-19. It is a commonsense, achievable goal to target isolation policy to that group, including strictly monitoring those who interact with them. Nursing home residents, the highest risk, should be the most straightforward to systematically protect from infected people, given that they already live in confined places with highly restricted entry.
The recent Stanford University antibody study now estimates that the fatality rate, if infected is likely 0.1 to 0.2 percent, a risk far lower than previous World Health Organization estimates that were 20 to 30 times higher.
Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding.
We can learn about hospital utilization from data from New York City, the hotbed of COVID-19 with more than 34,600 hospitalizations to date. For people ages 65 to 74, only 1.7 percent were hospitalized. Of 4,103 confirmed COVID-19 patients with symptoms bad enough to seek medical care, Dr. Leora Horwitz of NYU Medical Center concluded "age is far and away the strongest risk factor for hospitalization." Even early WHO reports noted that 80 percent of all cases were mild, and more recent studies show a far more widespread rate of infection and lower rate of serious illness. Half of all people testing positive for infection have no symptoms.
Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem.
We know from decades of medical science that infection itself allows people to generate an immune response — antibodies — so that the infection is controlled throughout the population by “herd immunity.” That is the main purpose of widespread immunization in other viral diseases, to assist with population immunity. In this virus, we know that medical care is not even necessary for the vast majority of people who are infected. It is so mild that half of infected people are asymptomatic. In fact, infected people without severe illness are the immediately available vehicle for establishing widespread immunity. By transmitting the virus to others in the low-risk group who then generate antibodies, they block the network of pathways toward the most vulnerable people, ultimately ending the threat.
People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections.
Critical health care for millions of Americans is being ignored and people are dying to accommodate “potential” COVID-19 patients and for fear of spreading the disease. Most states and many hospitals abruptly stopped “nonessential” procedures and surgery. That prevented diagnoses of life-threatening diseases, like cancer screening, biopsies of tumors now undiscovered and potentially deadly brain aneurysms. Treatments, including emergency care, for the most serious illnesses were also missed. Cancer patients deferred chemotherapy. An estimated 80 percent of brain surgery cases were skipped. Acute stroke and heart attack patients missed their only chances for treatment, some dying and many now facing permanent disability.
We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures.
The overwhelming evidence around the world consistently shows that a clearly defined group, older people and others with underlying conditions, is more likely to have a serious illness requiring hospitalization and more likely to die from COVID-19. It is a commonsense, achievable goal to target isolation policy to that group, including strictly monitoring those who interact with them. Nursing home residents, the highest risk, should be the most straightforward to systematically protect from infected people, given that they already live in confined places with highly restricted entry.
Flu Fact
There
are estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45
million cases in the US per year. During 2019/20, in the US, the
flu has already caused an estimated 26 million illnesses this
season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention.
Covid and Closed in
If you are feeling a
bit closed in, think about this. Human beings may dominate the
planet with our sprawling cities, but we are just one species
among some 8.7 million species that live together on planet
Earth.
One 2011 study published in the journal PLoS Biology
estimated that "the various forms of life on the planet included
7.8 million species of animals, 298,000 species of plants,
611,000 species of mushrooms, mold and other fungi, 36,400
species of protozoa, and 27,500 species of algae or chromists."
It is also worth noting that the researchers did not venture to
put an estimate on the number of bacteria.
The world population of people is 7.8 billion. As of
now, 2.5 million people have been affected by Covid with 706,000
recovered, and 1.7 million active cases.
In perspective I think it is time for the media
to get over themselves and report on the vast many good things
going on in our planet rather than just focusing in on the
half-vast Covid.
Feb 14, 2020
Coronavirus Update
US confirms 15th case on Feb 13. The World Health Organization,
February 11 proposed an official name for the illness caused by
the new coronavirus: COVID-19. The acronym stands for
coronavirus disease 2019, as the illness was first detected
toward the end of 2019.
The director general of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, noted that the new name makes no reference to any of the people, places, or animals associated with the coronavirus. The goal was to avoid stigma. (In other words, a politically correct name)
The director general of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, noted that the new name makes no reference to any of the people, places, or animals associated with the coronavirus. The goal was to avoid stigma. (In other words, a politically correct name)
Coronavirus vs. Other Outbreaks
Although there seems to be world panic
according to the media, the virus appears not be as deadly as
reports would have us believe. The number of confirmed cases of
the virus worldwide numbered 14,637 and the total confirmed
deaths stood at 305 as of midday Feb. 2, according to data
collected and mapped by Johns Hopkins University’s Center for
Systems Science and Engineering. As of Feb 5, a Wisconsin
coronavirus case brings total infected in US to 12.
To put the risk in more context, the current US flu season has killed 54 infants so far, according to CDC. In the U.S. alone, the flu has already caused an estimated 19 million illnesses, 180,000 hospitalizations and 10,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Common coronavirus symptoms can include:
— Fever
— Dry cough
— Shortness of breath
— Aching muscles
— Fatigue.
Less typical coronavirus symptoms:
— Phlegm buildup
— Headache
— Hemoptysis
— Diarrhea.
Symptoms atypical for coronavirus:
— Runny nose
— Sore throat.
A runny nose and a sore throat are typical signs of upper respiratory infection. Therefore, those who have bouts of sneezing or get the sniffles likely have the flu or a common cold. As the new coronavirus generally affects the lower respiratory tract, most of those infected exhibit a dry cough, shortness of breath or pneumonia, but not a sore throat.
Last week, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations announced a $12.5 million effort to develop a vaccine against the coronavirus, split among three firms. In the best-case scenario, immunologist Barney Graham of the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease told Science magazine, a vaccine would be ready for testing in people by next summer.
To put the risk in more context, the current US flu season has killed 54 infants so far, according to CDC. In the U.S. alone, the flu has already caused an estimated 19 million illnesses, 180,000 hospitalizations and 10,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Common coronavirus symptoms can include:
— Fever
— Dry cough
— Shortness of breath
— Aching muscles
— Fatigue.
Less typical coronavirus symptoms:
— Phlegm buildup
— Headache
— Hemoptysis
— Diarrhea.
Symptoms atypical for coronavirus:
— Runny nose
— Sore throat.
A runny nose and a sore throat are typical signs of upper respiratory infection. Therefore, those who have bouts of sneezing or get the sniffles likely have the flu or a common cold. As the new coronavirus generally affects the lower respiratory tract, most of those infected exhibit a dry cough, shortness of breath or pneumonia, but not a sore throat.
Last week, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations announced a $12.5 million effort to develop a vaccine against the coronavirus, split among three firms. In the best-case scenario, immunologist Barney Graham of the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease told Science magazine, a vaccine would be ready for testing in people by next summer.
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