Groundhog Day

Today is groundhog day and it is pundit predicted that Punxsutawney Phil, Pennsylvania’s weather-forecasting groundhog, will see his shadow, signaling six more weeks of winter weather for the United States. Watch your local news for updates after the sun rises.

Punxsutawney Phil's Prediction

The tradition comes from the German legend and Catholic feast day of Candlemas. "If Candlemas be fair and bright, Winter has another flight. If Candlemas brings clouds and rain, Winter will not come again."

This year, "It is agreed, there will be early Spring." The Groundhog Club emcee proclaimed, "There is no shadow to be cast! An early spring is my forecast." He added, "Take your jackets off, you're not going to need them." During the past 28 years, Phil was correct 13 times and incorrect 15 times. New Iberia's Pierre C. Shaddeaux (a nutria) agrees with Phil. Staten Island Chuck in New York and General Beauregard Lee in Georgia both concur with Phil that spring is coming soon.

The findings were independently verified by a groundhog in Canada, where Shubenacadie Sam, groundhog at Nova Scotia's Shubenacadie Wildlife Park also saw no shadow. According to a Canadian study looking at 13 different cities’ groundhogs used for their respective festivals, the net accuracy was only 37%.

Ontario's Wiarton Willie predicted six more weeks of winter after spotting his shadow. Ohio's Buckeye Chuck agrees. Alabama's Sand Mountain Sam, who has been making appearances since 1993 also agrees and has only been wrong one year. West Virginia's French Creek Freddie also predicts six more weeks of winter.

In Manitoba, Groundhog Day celebrations have been cancelled following the death of Winnipeg Willow, who died last Friday at the Prairie Wildlife Rehabilitation Centre.

No word yet from North Carolina's Sir Wally Wally (wrong 7 out of the last 10 years), Louisiana's T-boy, the Cajun Groundhog (actually a nutria), or Alabama's Smith Lake Jake.

It appears these groundhogs are about equally as accurate as local weatherpersons.

Earth Day Predictions

April 22, 2014 we celebrate Earth Day again. I thought it might be interesting to review some of the predictions from past Earth Days.

On the first Earth Day in 1970, here are some profound predictions that were made. “We have about five more years at the outside to do something.” Kenneth Watt, ecologist

"Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions. By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine." North Texas State University professor Peter Gunter

“Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.” George Wald, Harvard Biologist

"Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make. The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years." Stanford University biologist Paul Ehrlich

By 1995 "... somewhere between 75 and 85 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct." Sen. Gaylord Nelson

"By 1975 some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Other experts, more optimistic, think the ultimate food-population collision will not occur until the decade of the 1980s." Paul Ehrlich

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Earth Day 2013 - NOAA State of the Climate Report - "All of those things indicate that the climate system as a whole is continuing to warm up – and warm up faster as we go along.” Climatologist

“It’s hard to read the report and not be led to the conclusion that the task of reducing carbon emissions is now more urgent than ever.” another Climatologist

"Sea level rising an average of 3.2mm per year" (0.125984 inches).

"The climate system is not quite so simple as people thought." Danish environmental analyst Bjorn Lomborg

At least these folks are consistent with their predictions, in spite of a few facts, such as the earth is not over-populated, with very few countries producing enough children to replace themselves. In addition, we are not running out of resources. History has proven that Punxsutawney Phil has been more accurate in his predictions than the "human expert climate predictors."

Results of Groundhog Day 2012

It is official.  Pennsylvania's Punxsutawney Phil emerged from his lair to see his shadow yesterday. Thus we can expect six more weeks of winter.

The groundhog is also called a "woodchuck" and its scientific name is Marmota monax. Marmots are ground squirrels, living in burrows rather than trees. The marmots are related to tree squirrels, and all these animals are classed as rodents. A groundhog is one of the largest varieties of marmot and can weigh over 30 pounds just before going into hibernation.

Births usually occur during May. After four weeks, their eyes open and they begin to explore the outdoors. By August, they establish new burrows.

By the middle of October most groundhogs are hibernating and normally hibernate until about March. They can live up to about six years in the wild. Of course Punxsutawney Phil has been around since 1887.